Tonight is the night where we see if Giancarlo Stanton defends his title in his home field or a rookie takes over the throne. Maybe we also could see an upset, like Stanton's teammate Justin Bour could decide that he wants to win it for Miami and shocks the baseball world. Or maybe a player who's having their best season yet could win it all (looking at Miguel Sanó or Charlie Blackmon). Either way, it's hard to choose a champion but luckily my statistical tools helped seeing how each can do distance-wise. On Saturday we dealt with how many they can hit but since most of them are foreign to Miami's park, they have to be able to stroke it out. Stanton and Bour have that advantage there and the others also have to deal with an indoor stadium. People like Blackmon are used to altitude carrying the ball but no altitude or wind can save these players. Today's stats will show who has the best chance of going yard by using z-scores*. *Remember: The higher the z-score, the more the player can separate from the pack and be the best. Z-Scores were found by looking up each player's furthest home run this season on hittrackeronline.com (the best site!!) and also putting in the top 10 home run distances at Marlins Park for this year. They were then thrown together to find the average distance (451.8 ft) and the standard deviation (14.6). Then, each top distance from the players was subtracted and divided to see how far away they are from the mean. Now let's begin... Giancarlo StantonTop Distance: 465 ft Z-Score: 0.9 Gary SanchezTop Distance: 450 ft Z-Score: -0.1 Mike MoustakasTop Distance: 433 ft Z-Score: -1.3 Miguel SanóTop Distance: 465 ft Z-Score: 0.9 Aaron JudgeTop Distance: 496 ft Z-Score: 3.0 Justin BourTop Distance: 445 ft Z-Score: -0.47 Cody BellingerTop Distance: 432 ft Z-Score: -1.4 Charlie BlackmonTop Distance: 455 ft Z-Score: 0.22 Predictions for the RoundsRound One- Stanton over Sanchez Moustakas over Sanó Judge over Bour Blackmon over Bellinger Round Two- Stanton over Moustakas Judge over Blackmon Final Round- Stanton over Judge Why? Stanton has home crowd advantage and knows this park so well. A guy who has never been here before can only do so well. He's done well in unfamiliar parks and in the distance department, but not well enough to beat Stanton since a large majority of Judge's home runs are at home. There's simply no place like home and that will work in Stanton's favor, not Judge's. Marlins Park DimensionsLeft- 344 ft Left Center- 386 ft Center- 407 ft Right Center- 392 ft Right- 335 ft Who hits what? Righties vs. Lefties:This is important because it definitely looks like lefties have the advantage yet Stanton dominates at this stadium more often than not. Right- Stanton Sanchez Sanó Judge Left- Moustakas Bour Bellinger Blackmon Home Vs. Away DimensionsCourtesy of hittrackeronline.com. Make sure to watch on ESPN at 8 pm ET!
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